Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
06 Dec 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (09 Dec 14:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 167 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      167 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 94000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 130 490 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 130 670 thousand Few people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 157 850 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 167 1.2 million 90 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -6.7, 51.6
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -6.7, 50.9
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -7.1, 49.9
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -7.9, 48.7
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people -8.7, 47.8 Seychelles
          GREEN
          		 4 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people -9.7, 47.2 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 4 07 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 140000 people -10.9, 46.7 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 4 08 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 167 no people 230000 people -12.3, 46.2 Mayotte
          GREEN
          		 4 09 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 130 94000 people 360000 people -14.8, 45.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 4 10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 750000 people -18.3, 44.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 4 11 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.3, 45.4 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mahajanga Madagascar

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Bali Madagascar
          Soalala MGDWB Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Andranovoribe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 14:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (158 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 06 Dec 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.6
          09 Dec 2019 15:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Baly Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 21:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 21:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 22:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Berafia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Amado Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Mamoudzou Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Cani Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Sada Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Dzoumogne Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Chingoni Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Dapani Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Bandele Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Dembeni Mayotte  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 12:00 Longoni Mayotte  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1